2020 United States presidential election predictions

Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used:

  • Tossup: No advantage
  • Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • Lean: Slight advantage
  • Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR)
  • Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
State or district EV PVI 2016 result 2020 result Cook
Oct 28, 2020		 Inside Elections
Oct 28, 2020		 Sabato
Nov 2, 2020		 Politico
Nov 2, 2020		 Real
Clear
Politics
Oct 29, 2020		 Niskanen Center
Sep 15, 2020		 CNN
Nov 2, 2020		 The Economist
Nov 3, 2020		 CBS News
Nov 1, 2020		 270
to
Win
Nov 3, 2020		 ABC News
Nov 2, 2020		 NPR
Oct 30, 2020		 NBC News
Oct 27, 2020		 DDHQ
Nov 3, 2020		 Five
Thirty
Eight
Nov 2, 2020
 
Alabama 9 R+14 +27.73% R +25.46% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Alaska 3 R+9 +14.73% R +10.06% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Arizona 11 R+5 +3.50% R +0.31% D
(flip) 		Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
Arkansas 6 R+15 +26.92% R +27.62% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
California 55 D+12 +30.11% D +29.16% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Colorado 9 D+1 +4.91% D +13.50% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Connecticut 7 D+6 +13.64% D +20.07% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Delaware 3 D+6 +11.37% D +18.97% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
District of Columbia 3 D+41 +86.78% D +86.75% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Florida 29 R+2 +1.20% R
(flip)		 +3.36% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
Georgia 16 R+5 +5.13% R +0.24% D
(flip) 		Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Hawaii 4 D+18 +32.18% D +29.46% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Idaho 4 R+19 +31.77% R +30.77% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Illinois 20 D+7 +17.06% D +16.99% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Indiana 11 R+9 +19.17% R +16.06% R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Iowa 6 R+3 +9.41% R
(flip)		 +8.20% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
Kansas 6 R+13 +20.60% R +14.65% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Kentucky 8 R+15 +29.84% R +25.94% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Louisiana 8 R+11 +19.64% R +18.61% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Maine 2 D+3 +2.96% D +9.07% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D
ME-1 1 D+8 +14.81% D +23.09% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D — Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
ME-2 1 R+2 +10.29% R
(flip)		 +7.44% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely R Tossup — Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Maryland 10 D+12 +26.42% D +33.21% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Massachusetts 11 D+12 +27.20% D +33.46% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Michigan 16 D+1 +0.23% R
(flip)		 +2.78% D
(flip) 		Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Solid D (flip)
Minnesota 10 D+1 +1.52% D +7.11% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Solid D
Mississippi 6 R+9 +17.83% R +16.55% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R
Missouri 10 R+9 +18.64% R +15.39% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Montana 3 R+11 +20.42% R +16.37% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Nebraska 2 R+14 +25.05% R +19.06% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
NE-1 1 R+11 +20.72% R +14.92% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R — Likely R Safe R Solid R Lean R Solid R Safe R Solid R
NE-2 1 R+4 +2.24% R +6.50% D
(flip) 		Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) — Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
NE-3 1 R+27 +54.19% R +53.02% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R — Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Nevada 6 D+1 +2.42% D +2.39% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New Hampshire 4 D+1 +0.37% D +7.35% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 14 D+7 +14.10% D +15.94% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
New Mexico 5 D+3 +8.21% D +10.79% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
New York 29 D+11 +22.49% D +23.11% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
North Carolina 15 R+3 +3.66% R +1.35% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
North Dakota 3 R+16 +35.73% R +33.34% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Ohio 18 R+3 +8.13% R
(flip)		 +8.03% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Oklahoma 7 R+20 +36.39% R +33.09% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Oregon 7 D+5 +10.98% D +16.09% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Pennsylvania 20 EVEN +0.72% R
(flip)		 +1.16% D
(flip) 		Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Rhode Island 4 D+10 +15.51% D +20.77% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
South Carolina 9 R+8 +14.27% R +11.68% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
South Dakota 3 R+14 +29.79% R +26.16% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Tennessee 11 R+14 +26.01% R +23.21% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Texas 38 R+8 +8.99% R +5.58% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R
Utah 6 R+20 +18.08% R +20.48% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Vermont 3 D+15 +26.41% D +35.41% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
Virginia 13 D+1 +5.32% D +10.11% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Washington 12 D+7 +15.71% D +19.20% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Solid D
West Virginia 5 R+19 +42.07% R +38.93% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Wisconsin 10 EVEN +0.77% R
(flip)		 +0.63% D
(flip) 		Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Wyoming 3 R+25 +46.29% R +43.38% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R Solid R
Overall 538 EVEN D: 232
R: 306
 D: 306
R: 232
D: 290
R: 125
Tossup: 123 		D: 350
R: 125
Tossup: 63 		D: 321
R: 217
Tossup: 0 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 216
R: 125
Tossup: 197 		D: 318
R: 123
Tossup: 97 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 334
R: 164
Tossup: 40 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96 		D: 321
R: 125
Tossup: 92 		D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134 		D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134 		D: 308
R: 163
Tossup: 67 		D: 334
R: 169
Tossup: 35
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