Kermack–McKendrick theory

Kermack–McKendrick theory is a hypothesis that predicts the number and distribution of cases of an immunizing infectious disease over time as it is transmitted through a population based on characteristics of infectivity and recovery, under a strong-mixing assumption. Building on the research of Ronald Ross and Hilda Hudson, A. G. McKendrick and W. O. Kermack published their theory in a set of three articles from 1927, 1932, and 1933. Kermack–McKendrick theory is one of the sources of the SIR model and other related compartmental models. This theory was the first to explicitly account for the dependence of infection characteristics and transmissibility on the age of infection. Because of their seminal importance to the field of theoretical epidemiology, these articles were republished in the Bulletin of Mathematical Biology in 1991.

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