Lebanese political crisis (2019–present)

Lebanon has faced severe decline in recent years, leading to widespread disillusionment across its sectarian groups. After gaining independence in 1943, Lebanon established a sectarian power-sharing system, dividing key government roles among its religious groups. While intended to ensure balance, this system has fostered corruption, patronage, and political fragmentation. Political elites often distribute positions for loyalty rather than merit, leading to a culture of impunity and widespread misuse of state resources, including "ghost employees" to secure support.

Ranked 112th on the Human Development Index, Lebanon is facing severe economic and political instability. The 2019 liquidity crisis, compounded by corruption and disasters like the 2020 Beirut explosion, led to a collapse of the currency, widespread poverty, and resource shortages. With a caretaker government and a currency that has lost 97% of its value, the country struggles to provide basic services.

Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant and political group, has long been aligned with Iran, raising concerns that its domestic actions serve Iranian regional goals. While enjoying strong support within Lebanon's Shiite community, Hezbollah faces opposition from those critical of its ties to Iran and its role in regional conflicts, especially in Syria, where its support for the former Assad regime has drawn criticism from both Lebanese rivals and fellow Shiite figures. Once seen as Lebanon's defender, Hezbollah has faced scandals and growing internal and external criticism. Allegations of corruption and accusations of looting in 2013, have damaged its image. Internationally, its support for Syria's former Assad regime and military actions have led to sanctions and declining popularity, particularly in the Gulf. Within Lebanon, while Hezbollah maintains strong support among Shiites, overall trust in the group has decreased, with many Lebanese expressing distrust and dissatisfaction with its regional involvement. The group's rise to power has involved political violence, including high-profile assassinations and targeted killings of critics executed by Unit 121. Hezbollah's dominance has raised concerns about its influence over Lebanon's politics and its role in the Syrian Civil War. In October 2019, widespread protests in Lebanon criticized Hezbollah and its allies for corruption and economic decline, Hezbollah were also the focus of additional protests after the 2020 Beirut port explosion, ultimately leading to the resignation of the entire Lebanese Cabinet. Hezbollah's financial resources, including unlicensed banking and Iranian cash shipments, were heavily impacted in 2024. The group suffered significant leadership losses from Israeli airstrikes, including the death of Hassan Nasrallah, which severely weakened its structure and influence, leading to predictions of its long-term decline.

Amid Lebanon's crisis, there is an opportunity to rebuild the country with effective institutions and a unified army, free from sectarianism. Experts like David Ramadan and Bilal Ramez believe that weakening Hezbollah, electing a consensus president, and disarming the group could restore Lebanon's stability, strengthen the army, and end Iranian influence.