Observational interpretation fallacy

The observational interpretation fallacy is the cognitive bias where associations identified in observational studies are misinterpreted as causal relationships. This misinterpretation often influences clinical guidelines, public health policies, and medical practices, sometimes to the detriment of patient safety and resource allocation.

The term was introduced in a 2024 study published in the Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice. Researchers highlighted multiple historical instances where conclusions drawn from observational data led to changes in medical practice, which were later refuted by randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The phenomenon emphasizes the challenges of distinguishing correlation from causation, particularly in the absence of robust experimental controls.