The Keys to the White House

The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a non-scientific prediction system for attempting to predict the outcome of contemporary presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.

The system is a thirteen-point checklist that uses true-or-false statements: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the nominee of the incumbent party is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the nominee of the challenging party is predicted to win. Some of the items on the checklist involve qualitative judgment, and therefore the system relies heavily on the knowledge and analytical skill of whoever attempts to apply it.

Using the keys, Lichtman has successfully predicted nine of the last eleven presidential elections held since 1984, often making his prediction months, or sometimes years in advance. However, he incorrectly predicted that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 election, and the nature and accuracy of his predictions for Al Gore in 2000 (who lost the election but won the popular vote) and Donald Trump in 2016 (who won the election but lost the popular vote) have been disputed.

Lichtman argues that his model demonstrates that American voters select their next president according to how well the United States was governed in the preceding four years and that election campaigns have little (if any) meaningful effect on American voters. If voters are satisfied with the governance of the country, they will re-elect the president or whoever from his party runs in his stead. If they are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the challenging party.