Peak coal
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Use of coal is expected to peak in the mid-2020s. Historically, it was widely believed that the supply-side would eventually drive peak coal due to the depletion of coal reserves. However, since the increasing global efforts to limit climate change, peak coal has been driven by demand. This is due in large part to the rapid expansion of natural gas and renewable energy. As of 2024 over 40% of all energy sector CO2 emissions are from coal, and many countries have pledged to phase-out coal.
The peak of coal's share in the global energy mix was in 2008, when coal accounted for 30% of global energy production. Coal consumption is declining in the United States and Europe, as well as developed economies in Asia. However production increased in India, Indonesia and China, which offset the falls in other regions. Global coal consumption reached an all time high in 2023 at 8.5 billion tons, but is expected to reach a new record of 8.77 billion tons in 2024.
In 2024 the International Energy Agency said: “After having grown by more than 1.2 billion tonnes since 2020, global coal demand is set to plateau in the next three years, reaching around 8.87 billion tonnes by 2027. Given the slow progress of deploying carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies in the sector, carbon dioxide emissions from coal are not expected to decline in that period, based on today’s policy settings and market trends. While coal demand in advanced economies continues to shrink, this decline is expected to be offset by growth in a few emerging and developing economies, such as India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, where the additional energy demand associated with economic growth is set to be met with a variety of sources, including coal. Despite increasing renewable electricity generation, India is expected to see the largest increase in coal use in the coming years, driven by consumption from the power sector and industry. Still, as has been the case for 25 years, China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together, will continue to define global trends.”